Population Survival Simulator

Watch what happens when 1,000 people gamble over time. This interactive visualization demonstrates the statistical reality of gambling: while individuals may win in the short term, the house edge ensures that the population of winners steadily shrinks. Each dot represents a gambler—green for those currently ahead, red for those behind, and black for those who have lost their entire bankroll.

This tool brings abstract gambling statistics to life. Rather than just reading that "the house always wins," you can watch it happen in real-time across a population of virtual gamblers. The mathematics powering this simulation are based on established probability theory and gambling research from the University of Nevada Las Vegas International Gaming Institute, which maintains one of the world's largest collections of gaming statistics and research.

Understanding the Mathematics

This simulation uses established gambling mathematics to model realistic outcomes. Each virtual gambler makes independent bets with the house edge working against them on every wager. The simulation incorporates variance (the natural ups and downs of gambling) while demonstrating how the house edge inexorably shifts results over time.

The mathematics behind this simulator are well-documented in academic literature. The Law of Large Numbers, a fundamental theorem in probability theory, explains why casino outcomes converge toward the expected value over time. As the number of bets increases, actual results increasingly match the mathematical expectation—which always favors the house.

Key Mathematical Concepts

House Edge: The percentage of each bet the casino expects to keep long-term. A 5% house edge means the casino expects to profit 5₩ for every 100₩ wagered. Over thousands of bets, this adds up significantly.

Variance: The natural randomness that causes short-term results to differ from expectations. Variance explains why some gamblers win in the short term—but it cannot overcome the house edge over time. Research from the National Institutes of Health confirms that cognitive biases cause gamblers to overweight winning sessions while discounting the cumulative effect of losses.

Expected Value: The mathematical average of all possible outcomes. For casino games, expected value is always negative for the player. A ₩10,000 bet on American roulette has an expected value of -₩526 (the 5.26% house edge).

What This Simulation Reveals

Running this simulation multiple times reveals consistent patterns regardless of starting conditions:

• Short sessions show high variance: After just 1 hour, 30-50% of players may still be ahead depending on the game
• Longer sessions converge toward expectations: After 8+ hours, the percentage of winners drops dramatically
• Bankroll size delays but doesn't prevent losses: Larger bankrolls mean more bets before going broke, but the outcome is the same
• Lower house edge games preserve winners longer: Blackjack players remain profitable longer than slot players
• Eventually, almost everyone loses: Given enough time, virtually all recreational gamblers end up behind

Connection to South Korean Gambling Policy

South Korea's strict gambling laws, covered in detail on our gambling law page, reflect an understanding of these mathematical realities. The government recognizes that the house edge ensures systematic wealth transfer from players to gambling operators, contributing to financial hardship, addiction, and associated social problems.

This is why Kangwon Land remains the only casino where Korean citizens can legally gamble—and even there, strict regulations limit visit frequency and betting amounts. The mathematics of gambling make it fundamentally different from other forms of entertainment where your money doesn't systematically disappear.

The National Gambling Control Commission of Korea monitors gambling activities and supports research into problem gambling, recognizing that understanding these mathematical realities is essential for effective policy and prevention efforts.

Explore Related Tools

Understanding population-level gambling outcomes is just one piece of the puzzle. Explore these related tools for a complete picture of gambling mathematics:

• House Edge Calculator - Calculate expected losses for specific bets and playing times
• Random Walk Simulator - Visualize individual bankroll trajectories over time
• Risk of Ruin Calculator - Calculate the probability of losing your entire bankroll
• Session Simulator - Monte Carlo simulation of gambling sessions
• Variance Calculator - Understand why short-term results differ from expectations

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do some dots stay green for so long?

Variance (randomness) creates winners in the short term. Some gamblers will get lucky and stay ahead for extended periods. However, the simulation shows that these lucky streaks eventually end for nearly everyone as the law of large numbers takes effect.

Is this simulation accurate?

The simulation uses standard probability mathematics and realistic house edge values. While simplified compared to actual casino conditions, it accurately demonstrates the population-level effects of the house edge over time.

Can I use this to predict my own gambling results?

No. Individual results are unpredictable in the short term due to variance. This simulation shows population-level trends, not individual outcomes. Your personal results could be better or worse than average in any given session.

Why do slot players go broke faster?

Slots combine a higher house edge (typically 5-10%) with rapid play (600+ spins per hour). This means more bets against a larger edge, accelerating the mathematical extraction of player funds. Our Bet Speed Calculator explores this in detail.